The COVID-19 outbreak has seriously affected the global food security at a time when it was significantly compromised by the effects of climate change and armed conflicts. Aims: The impact of the pandemic and quarantine restrictions imposed in response to the deadly virus brought humanity face-to-face with a new threat - that of food insecurity - which contributed to a high social demand for state-of-the-art methods of improving the cereal production efficiency. The aim of the study is to develop and implement a methodological approach to enhancing the cereal production efficiency. The methodology of the study relies on time series that made it possible to determine the main trends in regional cereal production and make projections. Application of the suggested approach in the Kostanay region revealed that this region was among the key cereal producers in the country. In 2019, the region was affected by extreme weather, which caused a sharp decline in cereal production. The present study, however, projects large opportunities for cereal production growth in the region and a significant increase in cereal production in the future. In addition, the paper suggests the following action plan to improve efficiency of the cereal production sector in the Kostanay region: streamlining of state support arrangements for cereal producers; development of affordable crop insurance products; systemic steps to increase cereal yields; development of logistic infrastructure; comprehensive monitoring of cereal production to develop a system of rapid response to changes in the external environment.