An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship Between Electricity Futures Prices and Guarantees of Origin Prices in Poland (2022–2025)
Więcej
Ukryj
1
Krakow University of Economics
SŁOWA KLUCZOWE
DZIEDZINY
STRESZCZENIE
The 2022–2023 energy crisis fundamentally altered the functioning of the Guarantees of Origin (GO) market in Poland, exposing structural inefficiencies and accelerating regulatory and behavioral changes among market participants. This paper examines GO price dynamics in Poland during the energy transition period 2022–2025, assessing the relationship between electricity prices and GO prices against the backdrop of the European energy crisis, intensifying decarbonization policies, and structural transformation of the Polish energy sector. The empirical analysis is based on monthly market data from the Polish Power Exchange (TGE) and related statistical sources. A quantitative framework was applied, using Pearson correlation analysis and a linear regression model linking BASE electricity futures prices with GO prices. The findings indicate that GO market dynamics are driven not only by developments in wholesale electricity markets but also by structural and institutional factors, including ESG focused corporate demand, renewable energy policy developments, regulatory conditions, market liquidity, and the supply of renewable energy certificates. The study further shows that, following the 2022 crisis, GO prices adjusted more gradually than electricity prices, suggesting delayed market responses and partial market inefficiency. The Jarque–Bera normality test confirms non normal residual distributions, pointing to structural breaks, asymmetric adjustments, and potential non linearities in GO market behavior over the analyzed period. This paper contributes to the limited empirical literature on Guarantees of Origin markets in Central and Eastern Europe and provides new evidence that GO markets follow distinct pricing mechanisms compared with conventional electricity markets, warranting more advanced modelling approaches that incorporate non linear and regime dependent dynamics.